Fantastic Voyage: EMQB's Fantasy Draft Rules for 2010

Jump at the chance to draft Jermichael Finley

As sure as Brett Favre's annual comeback, the fantasy football draft season is in full swing. Drafting your fantasy team online should be a crime (considering that eating high calorie junk food while drafting among rivals is a part of the unwritten code of fantasy geeks), and the team who selects Sidney Rice with their second round pick should provide plenty of laughs.

I have just finished two championship quality drafts (of course) and would like to break down the EMQB's rules to fantasy football drafting in 2010:

1. If you have a chance to draft Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Maurice Jones-Drew, please do:  This would seem like a no brainer. In fact, my son, in his very first fantasy football draft, went against my advice and drafted Andre Johnson with Peterson and MJD still left on the board. So much for the future of our country.

2. Draft Calvin Johnson because he will have a career year: I could give you a bunch of excuses on why he didn't have a great season in 2009. I will tell you this, Megatron will have a better statistical year than every receiver except the previously mentioned Andre Johnson. He is a bona fide freak of nature, and with the Lions new weapons in the passing game, he can't be stopped. I have selected him in both of my fantasy drafts so far and don't have an ounce of buyer's remorse.  Feel free to select Calvin in the second round and add a championship trophy to your mantle.

3. Jermichael Finley is as good if not better as Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark: If you take Finley's averages over the last 7 games of the 2009 season, he would have had 950 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. That is not including his two monster games, one for 128 receiving yards and a touchdown in week 4 against the Vikings and the other for 159 yards against the Cards in the playoffs. He could easily surpass 1,100 receiving yards and have 10-12 touchdowns in 2010. Gates has had his share of injury issues, and Clark has never been the main focus of the Colts offense. Finley is only 23 years old and hasn't had his best season yet. Gates and Clark probably have.

4. Nab Shonn Greene or Jamaal Charles if you can get one of the big three: If you can't achieve rule number one, than choose either Shonn Greene or Jamaal Charles in the second or third round. Charles is a former track star who could be the next CJ2K, and Greene is the beneficiary of the carries left over by the departure of Thomas Jones. Anybody who plays fantasy knows carries are money. Don't let the your opponents draft these guys and leave you crying alone in the dark later.

5. Plenty O' Quaterbacks: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are all elite fantasy quarterbacks. The fact is the difference between Eli Manning and Peyton Manning was about 3.25 points per game in 2009. Matt Shaub, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, and Matt Ryan are all great starting options and will come much cheaper than the "elite" quaterbacks. Shop at the dollar store and not at Neiman Marcus.

6. Better late than never: There are so many receivers and runners with huge roles on their team still available late in the draft. Here's the current fliers on my menu: 

Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Michael Bush at running back

Jacoby Jones, Malcolm Floyd, the Bucs' Mike Williams, Laurent Robinson, Nate Burleson, Anthony Gonzalez, and Jabar Gaffney at wide receiver

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson, Dustin Keller, Ben Watson, and Tony Scheffler at the tight end position

These guys all have the benefit of personnel, coaching, or team changes that give them a huge role with their team. Many players with bigger injury risks and lesser roles will be selected before these guys, but trust me these guys have much bigger upside, and you can thank me later for telling you about them (just like my friend just did for telling him to pick up Chris Johnson in our keeper league -  two years ago).

7. Don't freak on the streak: Every draft has a streak. Players from the same position come flying off the board, and you're left with Derrick Ward as your second running back. Stay calm. Find value at another position. This year's crop of players is deep, and if you don't so flustered by a streak that you need medication, you'll be able to draft for value through most of the draft and not have to draft for need until the very end.

8. Survival of the fittest: Football often plays out like watching Animal Planet. The old and tired are devoured by the young and strong. With age and wear comes increased risk for injury for players. Players like Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb must be backed up with reliable fantasy options if you draft them as your starting quarterbacks. This forces you to spend a higher pick on a backup at a certain position, rather than drafting the best player available.

Other age and injury risks: Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Deion Branch, Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, and Todd Heap.

So there you have it. If you want to taste the playoffs like I have in each of the last four fantasy seasons, you will heed my advice. If you think I'm a blabbering idiot, you won't. Either way, I hope you learned something. Good luck in the realm of fantasy.

Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
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EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC West

It's now on to the AFC West and their fantasy sleepers.  Most of the names here are familiar and could harvest big dividends for the fantasy owner willing to take a risk on them.  Eddie Royal is looking to return to fantasy stardom.  Malcolm Floyd and Michael Bush are looking to finally have their breakout seasons. Tony Moeki is a rookie tight end on a Chiefs' team starved for talent at the position.  Fortunately if these guys don't come through, you can cut them and get somebody who can play.  EMQB is always putting the "ex" in expert.

Denver Broncos - Eddie Royal, WR:  With Brandon Marshall traded to Miami, Royal seems too obvious to be a sleeper. The selection of Demaryius Thomas in the first round and Royal's disappointing 2009 season (37 receptions, 345 yards, no touchdowns) doesn't guarantee that Royal will be the number one receiver in Denver.  If Royal is put in the slot with Thomas and Jabar Gaffney playing the outside receiver positions, Royal could post numbers much closer to his 2008 season (91 catches, 980 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns).  He also has great ability as a kick returner.  Look for Royal to possibly bounce back big.  He will be available somewhere around the 9th round or possibly later, but his upside at WR3 is worth the risk.


San Diego Chargers - Malcolm Floyd, WR:  Floyd's number of receptions rose from 27 in '08 to 36 in '09.  That doesn't seem like a lot, but in the Chargers' down field passing game, Floyd could develop into a scoring threat.  As the pass attempts rise for the Chargers, the number of targets for Floyd will rise with them.  Floyd is a late round pick at best and would probably be available as a priority free agent.

Kansas City Chiefs - Tony Moeki, TE:  Rookies can be the best sleepers, and Moeki is a true sleeper.  He has impressed in mini camps (in his shorts and t-shirts) and should add a threat in the middle of the field that the Chiefs have been lacking since the Tony Gonzalez trade.  Todd Haley doesn't call the tight end's number often (Sean Ryan lead the Chiefs in tight end receptions with 14 last season), and Moeki may be the fifth best receiving option on the team.  None the less, Moeki could surprise.  Though he is not worth a draft pick at this point, he is definitely worth a look in dynasty leagues and as player to keep tabs on for bye week replacements.

Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush, RB:  Bush isn't a huge sleeper, but when you consider that Darren McFadden was a high draft pick and still has great expectations attached to his immense physical talent, Bush maybe available after McFadden.  With the distinct possibility of McFadden getting injured, Bush seems like a great option in the Raiders' run first offense.  Reports are he is already running with the first team offense in mini camp and that bodes well for a possible 1,000 yard rushing season. View Bush as a RB3 with huge upside and look to select him around the fifth round.






 


Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
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EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC South

The Colts, Jags, Texans, and Titans are all deep offensive teams with defined roles. Finding sleepers will be no easy chore. But talent is always buried on even the most talented rosters, and all these players need is opportunity.

Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gonzales, WR: Nothing will get you forgotten as quickly as being injured. Gonzales was injured in week 1 of last season and never returned to the field during the Colts' Super Bowl run. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie emerged, and fantasy owners will probably have Gonzales fighting for the 3rd wide receiver.  However, if he can fully recover, he could reclaim that second receiver spot. The training camp battle should be watched closely as the second receiver spot on the Colts can be easily worth around 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. If Gonzales wins this spot, he could be had for a mid round pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Jarrett Dillard, WR: The 5'10", 187 pound Dillard was a star at Rice and can win a wide open competition for the Jags' second receiver spot. The Jags love to run the football, so the expectations of the player who wins that spot should be tempered. Dillard's competition (Troy Williamson and Mike Thomas) have their limitations, and Dillard is ultra-competitive, tough, and catches the football in traffic. I like him to win this job, and if he does, because of the run oriented offense he is in, he could be available in the late rounds or as a high priority free agent.

Houston Texans - Jacoby Jones, WR: Jones is an explosive return man and has shown the same potential as a receiver. He had 5 touchdown receptions in his 22 catches last season. Jones has the speed and ability to get behind NFL defenses. The resigning of Kevin Walters will bring down Jones value, but Walters could be moved to the slot, and Jones to the outside position opposite Andre Johnson. If this is the case, Jones would be an excellent late round value because of the Texans downfield passing offense.

Tennessee Titans - Jared Cook, TE: Cook is an athletic tight end (like Jermichael Finley), and the Titans would love to feature him much more in their offense this season. Bo Scaife is ahead of him on the depth chart but isn't much better of a blocker, and he definitely does not have the playmaking ability that Cook does. Though Scaife might start out the season getting more snaps, there is a strong chance that Cook could work his way up to a starter and a major red zone threat. Cook is not worth a draft pick at this point, but should be one of the first tight ends consider as an injury or fantasy bust replacement.

EMQB will next look at the wild AFC West and see what Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego have hidden in the cupboard.






Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
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Gigantic Mess

There isn't a whole lot I could add to the recent story of former New York Giant and Hall of Famer Lawrence Taylor's arrest. There is not one detail that is positive.


It saddens me that with one bad decision Taylor has wiped away any perception that his life had made a change for the positive. He was honored as one of the greatest all time draft picks at last month's NFL draft and was appearing in those annoying Nutrisystem commercials. It seemed that Taylor had turned a corner. 

Now Taylor faces the possibility of being a registered sex offender. Unfortunately, he will now be remembered more for his struggles with drug addition and legal problems than for being one of the greatest players in the history of football.


LT was a feared opponent. Unfortunately he has turned that persona against himself.






 Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
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Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies

It's never too early for fantasy predictions. Here are EMQB's top 12 rookies based on my fantasy projections. I based them on opportunity and environment along with their draft position. This system hasn't failed me in the four years I've used it. It also helps if you have a poor disposition to losing.

1. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers - Mathews will get plenty of carries and plenty of chances to score touchdowns in the Chargers' high flying offense. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield and, therefore, doesn't need to be replaced on passing downs. If he can stay healthy the entire season, he could make letting Darren Sproles enter free agency a lot easier. Look to draft Mathews in the 3rd or 4th round of seasonal fantasy drafts.


2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions - C.J. Spiller was the back in this draft whose name was mentioned with the likes of the Titans' Chris Johnson, but I believe Best is a closer example because of his toughness between the tackles. If he can endure NFL hits and if the Lions can block (which is a huge amount of "if"s), Best could be the runaway (pun fully intended) Rookie of Year. Draft Best around the 4th or 5th round in seasonal drafts.


3. Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans - When Steve Slaton struggled last season, the Texans became a one dimensional passing team. Houston drafted Tate with the intention of resolving that problem. While he will split carries with Slaton, look for the Texans to use Tate as a goal line back and their main running option with a fourth quarter lead. Tate could be available from the 6th - 8th rounds of the seasonal draft and has sleeper pick written all over him.


4. Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland Browns - Despite incumbent starter Jerome Harrison's huge last three games of the 2009 season (including 282 yards rushing in a meaningless game against Kansas City Chiefs), the Browns traded up for Hardesty. He is a big back (6'0", 220 lbs) and could instantly become the Browns' short yardage and goal line runner.  He has the potential to be the full-time guy in Cleveland this season. He plays for an awful Browns' team and that will drop his draft stock to the later rounds of seasonal drafts, but he will get touches and should out-perform some rookies that were drafted higher.


5. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys - Bryant is the most talented rookie in this group and goes to a team where he is surrounded with talent. He will not be the focus of attention and could become a force because of single coverage. I rank him this low because wide receivers usually requires some time (a season or two) to adjust from the college game. I tend to think rookies are the rule and not the exception, but Bryant is worth drafting in the 5th - 7th rounds based on a potential Randy Moss-like rookie campaign.


6. C.J. Spiller, RB/RS, Buffalo Bills - Spiller is the next Reggie Bush - minus the great quarterback, excellent offensive line, and creative play calling. Spiller is dynamic and will create some big plays for this Bills' team. I have a hard time believing he will make a game in / game out contribution because of his tendency to bounce most of his runs to the outside and the lack of talent surrounding him. Many people, like my friend Jay "the Bills' homer", will disagree with my notion that Spiller is a real value around the 8th or 9th round. However, he could go as high as the 2nd or 3rd round in seasonal drafts. Just be thankful that someone else takes on the risk of picking Spiller that high. Go ahead, Jay, he's all yours.


7. Golden Tate, WR/KR, Seattle Seahawks - Tate gets ranked this high because he has a veteran quarterback and some decent talent surrounding him at the position. If your league gives extra points for return yards, his value is even higher. Tate is great after the catch, and I believe he has a legitimate chance to be the top rookie receiver in fantasy this season because of his experience in the pro style offense, route running ability, and toughness. He probably will go undrafted in seasonal leagues but could be worth a late round flier.

8. Dexter McCluster, WR/RB/RS, Kansas City Chiefs - McCluster has a lot of things going against him: lack of size, has to learn the receiver position at the pro level, and having big expectations based on his status as a high round draft pick. McCluster is an instinctive playmaker who will be given chances to make plays. Based on his potential to score 6-7 touchdowns and make big plays, McCluster is a high-priority free agent who should be monitored through out training camp and the pre-season.

9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos - Thomas has a long way to go in his route running capabilities but should be able to make an impact based on a lack of depth at the receiver postion and his raw physical talent. Thomas could be drafted late in seasonal drafts based on being a first round pick but expectations should be tempered as Thomas is a developmental prospect.

10. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals - If your league requires you to have a starting tight end like mine does, then Gresham should be on your radar as a potential bye week replacement. He has talent surrounding him on the Bengals' offense and should get some chances to catch goal line touchdowns and exploit matchups against slower linebackers. The Bengals will probably continue to be a run first team, so his targets in the passing game could be sporatic.


11. Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Somebody has to be the number one for the Bucs, and it very well could be Benn. A lock for the first round even before the start of his junior season in '09, Benn struggled with the poor quarterback play at Illinois. Tampa could be behind in a lot of games this season, and Benn could benefit from the increased passing. Not draftable at this point, he should be looked at as a priority free agent.


12. Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings - If Gerhart could fill the Chester Taylor role, he will make for a viable bye week replacement. Adrian Peterson could see more carries if Brett Farve retires, and more carries means a higher risk of injury. That would the point were Gerhart would have real fantasy value. Look for him to be a late round flier or a priority free agent.


Keep an eye on........


Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers


Joe McKnight, RB, New York Jets


Anthony Dixon, RB, San Francisco 49ers


Jordan Shipley, WR, Cincinnati Bengals


Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 


Armanti Edwards, WR, Carolina Panthers

 


Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
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One Question Leads To Another

The hot topic in NFL news this last week has been the question Miami Dolphins' G.M. Jeff Ireland asked new Dallas Cowboys' wide receiver Dez Bryant during a pre-draft interview: "Is your mother a prostitute?" will forever go down in NFL infamy.

I don't think it was an appropriate comment in any context.  However, for the sake of journalistic integrity (of which I have none), I wasn't there and do not know the exact situation.

The NFL is well-known for objectifying players. They are viewed as commidities and are discarded with ease. This incident shines a light on a much bigger problem. It is safe to assume that the question during Bryant's interview is not the worst question that a prospect has ever been asked.

The rising contracts and available resources for NFL rookies has helped to further this attitude. With the top picks getting coached on interviews and receiving the top salaries in the entire League, the pressure has been put on NFL general managers to get production out of their draft picks or quickly be replaced. The employment world outside of the NFL is no different.  A $40 per hour employee is going to be scrutinized in the interview process much more than a $10 an hour employee.

These types of interviewing methods are accepted by the prospective draftees because of the money at stake. The NFL minimum for rookies is $285,000 and that is an exceptional salary in any industry. They view the chance to play in the NFL and make a great salary as far outweighing being treated in way that we might believe to be degrading or dehumanizing. The players have the choice to not be subjected to this type of behavior and enter the regular work world like the rest of us (where you can be treated poorly in also) or to deal with the scrutiny of the NFL.

The NFL has proposed to cut the rising cost of rookie salaries by about 75% and reduce the lengths of their contract from 5-6 years to 3 years.  (I brought up the subject in a previous post.) This would solve the problem of the teams being tied to busts with long term contracts and big money.

This change wouldn't effect the overall attitude of NFL toward the treatment of players, but could change the paranoia and anxiety related to paying huge salaries to top prospects with issues like Bryant. The interview process would not be as important because the player would be more disposable.

The ugly side of the NFL has shown its face. Now the NFL needs to figure out how to put some makeup on it.



Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
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