American football field. image by Sandra Henderson from Fotolia.com

Read more: How to Use Statistical Analysis in Fantasy Football | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_7948278_use-statistical-analysis-fantasy-football.html#ixzz1EFGYaS00

One of our staff writers has a new article up on eHow.com.  Check out advice on how to use statistical analysis for managing your fantasy football.  






Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

Fantastic Voyage: EMQB's Fantasy Draft Rules for 2010

Jump at the chance to draft Jermichael Finley

As sure as Brett Favre's annual comeback, the fantasy football draft season is in full swing. Drafting your fantasy team online should be a crime (considering that eating high calorie junk food while drafting among rivals is a part of the unwritten code of fantasy geeks), and the team who selects Sidney Rice with their second round pick should provide plenty of laughs.

I have just finished two championship quality drafts (of course) and would like to break down the EMQB's rules to fantasy football drafting in 2010:

1. If you have a chance to draft Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Maurice Jones-Drew, please do:  This would seem like a no brainer. In fact, my son, in his very first fantasy football draft, went against my advice and drafted Andre Johnson with Peterson and MJD still left on the board. So much for the future of our country.

2. Draft Calvin Johnson because he will have a career year: I could give you a bunch of excuses on why he didn't have a great season in 2009. I will tell you this, Megatron will have a better statistical year than every receiver except the previously mentioned Andre Johnson. He is a bona fide freak of nature, and with the Lions new weapons in the passing game, he can't be stopped. I have selected him in both of my fantasy drafts so far and don't have an ounce of buyer's remorse.  Feel free to select Calvin in the second round and add a championship trophy to your mantle.

3. Jermichael Finley is as good if not better as Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark: If you take Finley's averages over the last 7 games of the 2009 season, he would have had 950 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. That is not including his two monster games, one for 128 receiving yards and a touchdown in week 4 against the Vikings and the other for 159 yards against the Cards in the playoffs. He could easily surpass 1,100 receiving yards and have 10-12 touchdowns in 2010. Gates has had his share of injury issues, and Clark has never been the main focus of the Colts offense. Finley is only 23 years old and hasn't had his best season yet. Gates and Clark probably have.

4. Nab Shonn Greene or Jamaal Charles if you can get one of the big three: If you can't achieve rule number one, than choose either Shonn Greene or Jamaal Charles in the second or third round. Charles is a former track star who could be the next CJ2K, and Greene is the beneficiary of the carries left over by the departure of Thomas Jones. Anybody who plays fantasy knows carries are money. Don't let the your opponents draft these guys and leave you crying alone in the dark later.

5. Plenty O' Quaterbacks: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are all elite fantasy quarterbacks. The fact is the difference between Eli Manning and Peyton Manning was about 3.25 points per game in 2009. Matt Shaub, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, and Matt Ryan are all great starting options and will come much cheaper than the "elite" quaterbacks. Shop at the dollar store and not at Neiman Marcus.

6. Better late than never: There are so many receivers and runners with huge roles on their team still available late in the draft. Here's the current fliers on my menu: 

Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Michael Bush at running back

Jacoby Jones, Malcolm Floyd, the Bucs' Mike Williams, Laurent Robinson, Nate Burleson, Anthony Gonzalez, and Jabar Gaffney at wide receiver

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson, Dustin Keller, Ben Watson, and Tony Scheffler at the tight end position

These guys all have the benefit of personnel, coaching, or team changes that give them a huge role with their team. Many players with bigger injury risks and lesser roles will be selected before these guys, but trust me these guys have much bigger upside, and you can thank me later for telling you about them (just like my friend just did for telling him to pick up Chris Johnson in our keeper league -  two years ago).

7. Don't freak on the streak: Every draft has a streak. Players from the same position come flying off the board, and you're left with Derrick Ward as your second running back. Stay calm. Find value at another position. This year's crop of players is deep, and if you don't so flustered by a streak that you need medication, you'll be able to draft for value through most of the draft and not have to draft for need until the very end.

8. Survival of the fittest: Football often plays out like watching Animal Planet. The old and tired are devoured by the young and strong. With age and wear comes increased risk for injury for players. Players like Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb must be backed up with reliable fantasy options if you draft them as your starting quarterbacks. This forces you to spend a higher pick on a backup at a certain position, rather than drafting the best player available.

Other age and injury risks: Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Deion Branch, Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, and Todd Heap.

So there you have it. If you want to taste the playoffs like I have in each of the last four fantasy seasons, you will heed my advice. If you think I'm a blabbering idiot, you won't. Either way, I hope you learned something. Good luck in the realm of fantasy.

Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC West

It's now on to the AFC West and their fantasy sleepers.  Most of the names here are familiar and could harvest big dividends for the fantasy owner willing to take a risk on them.  Eddie Royal is looking to return to fantasy stardom.  Malcolm Floyd and Michael Bush are looking to finally have their breakout seasons. Tony Moeki is a rookie tight end on a Chiefs' team starved for talent at the position.  Fortunately if these guys don't come through, you can cut them and get somebody who can play.  EMQB is always putting the "ex" in expert.

Denver Broncos - Eddie Royal, WR:  With Brandon Marshall traded to Miami, Royal seems too obvious to be a sleeper. The selection of Demaryius Thomas in the first round and Royal's disappointing 2009 season (37 receptions, 345 yards, no touchdowns) doesn't guarantee that Royal will be the number one receiver in Denver.  If Royal is put in the slot with Thomas and Jabar Gaffney playing the outside receiver positions, Royal could post numbers much closer to his 2008 season (91 catches, 980 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns).  He also has great ability as a kick returner.  Look for Royal to possibly bounce back big.  He will be available somewhere around the 9th round or possibly later, but his upside at WR3 is worth the risk.


San Diego Chargers - Malcolm Floyd, WR:  Floyd's number of receptions rose from 27 in '08 to 36 in '09.  That doesn't seem like a lot, but in the Chargers' down field passing game, Floyd could develop into a scoring threat.  As the pass attempts rise for the Chargers, the number of targets for Floyd will rise with them.  Floyd is a late round pick at best and would probably be available as a priority free agent.

Kansas City Chiefs - Tony Moeki, TE:  Rookies can be the best sleepers, and Moeki is a true sleeper.  He has impressed in mini camps (in his shorts and t-shirts) and should add a threat in the middle of the field that the Chiefs have been lacking since the Tony Gonzalez trade.  Todd Haley doesn't call the tight end's number often (Sean Ryan lead the Chiefs in tight end receptions with 14 last season), and Moeki may be the fifth best receiving option on the team.  None the less, Moeki could surprise.  Though he is not worth a draft pick at this point, he is definitely worth a look in dynasty leagues and as player to keep tabs on for bye week replacements.

Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush, RB:  Bush isn't a huge sleeper, but when you consider that Darren McFadden was a high draft pick and still has great expectations attached to his immense physical talent, Bush maybe available after McFadden.  With the distinct possibility of McFadden getting injured, Bush seems like a great option in the Raiders' run first offense.  Reports are he is already running with the first team offense in mini camp and that bodes well for a possible 1,000 yard rushing season. View Bush as a RB3 with huge upside and look to select him around the fifth round.






 


Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC South

The Colts, Jags, Texans, and Titans are all deep offensive teams with defined roles. Finding sleepers will be no easy chore. But talent is always buried on even the most talented rosters, and all these players need is opportunity.

Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gonzales, WR: Nothing will get you forgotten as quickly as being injured. Gonzales was injured in week 1 of last season and never returned to the field during the Colts' Super Bowl run. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie emerged, and fantasy owners will probably have Gonzales fighting for the 3rd wide receiver.  However, if he can fully recover, he could reclaim that second receiver spot. The training camp battle should be watched closely as the second receiver spot on the Colts can be easily worth around 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. If Gonzales wins this spot, he could be had for a mid round pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Jarrett Dillard, WR: The 5'10", 187 pound Dillard was a star at Rice and can win a wide open competition for the Jags' second receiver spot. The Jags love to run the football, so the expectations of the player who wins that spot should be tempered. Dillard's competition (Troy Williamson and Mike Thomas) have their limitations, and Dillard is ultra-competitive, tough, and catches the football in traffic. I like him to win this job, and if he does, because of the run oriented offense he is in, he could be available in the late rounds or as a high priority free agent.

Houston Texans - Jacoby Jones, WR: Jones is an explosive return man and has shown the same potential as a receiver. He had 5 touchdown receptions in his 22 catches last season. Jones has the speed and ability to get behind NFL defenses. The resigning of Kevin Walters will bring down Jones value, but Walters could be moved to the slot, and Jones to the outside position opposite Andre Johnson. If this is the case, Jones would be an excellent late round value because of the Texans downfield passing offense.

Tennessee Titans - Jared Cook, TE: Cook is an athletic tight end (like Jermichael Finley), and the Titans would love to feature him much more in their offense this season. Bo Scaife is ahead of him on the depth chart but isn't much better of a blocker, and he definitely does not have the playmaking ability that Cook does. Though Scaife might start out the season getting more snaps, there is a strong chance that Cook could work his way up to a starter and a major red zone threat. Cook is not worth a draft pick at this point, but should be one of the first tight ends consider as an injury or fantasy bust replacement.

EMQB will next look at the wild AFC West and see what Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego have hidden in the cupboard.






Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC North

Today's fantasy sleepers come to us via the AFC North, which was known for its hard-nosed, run- first mentality, but is slowly evolving into a more passer friendly group. With the great defenses in the division, these sleepers better keep their eyes open and their head on a swivel.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Wallace, WR: Considering the trade of Santonio Holmes, Wallace might not be a guy many owners are sleeping on. With bigger "name" wide receivers on the roster, like Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle-El, Wallace could be overlooked and be an awesome value pick. Wallace is a speedster who is adept at making plays down the field. He averaged 75 receiving yards a game the last three games of last season and added 3 touchdowns in those contests. If he could keep that up over a full season, that would be more than 1200 receiving yards. He could be available for sixth or seventh round draft pick and could far out produce guys drafted ahead of him.

Cleveland Browns - James Davis, RB: A rookie who had an awesome pre-season last year but was sidelined after week three for the entire remainder of the 2009 season. With the drafting of Montario Hardesty and the strong finish of Jerome Harrison last season, Davis will be an afterthought in many draft magazines and websites. He fought off C.J. Spiller for a starting job for three years and has as much physical talent as Hardesty or Harrison. Don't sleep on this guy. If he wins the starting job in Cleveland, he is a solid no. 3 running back, and if he doesn't, he will be a top name to watch in case of injury.

Baltimore Ravens - Donte' Stallworth, WR: After being suspended for the entire 2009, Stallworth gets a new opportunity with the Ravens. Existing starters Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton are still on the roster, and Baltimore made a big trade for Anquan Boldin, so Stallworth is facing a tough battle to get reps. He could surpass Clayton, who has been a disappointment and is coming off a knee injury. He will never be a number one but has nice run after the catch ability, and this Ravens wide receiver corps is lacking blazing speed. Stallworth is not drafting at this point, but if he moves up the depth chart in the pre-season, he could fill in nicely as a bye week replacement.

Cincinnati Bengals - Matt Jones, WR: Another player looking to revive his career, Jones has elite physical talent. He is on a team that is filled with wide receivers (Chad Ochocinco, Antonio Bryant, Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, and Jordan Shipley) so he could have trouble making the roster. Jones has never had a huge season (65 catches, 761 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns are his career highs) so my optimism is guarded. But if he wins the fourth receiver job and an injury occurs, Jones suddenly becomes a nice player to stash on your roster. Jones is the biggest long shot I have profiled so far, but a player with his ability should always be on your radar.

Tomorrow we will explore the hidden gems on the Texans, Colts, Jags, and Titans. With all the offensive firepower, it's going to be hard to find guys who aren't high on everybody's cheat sheet. The Every Morning Quarterback is up to the challenge. Prepare to dominate your league in your knowledge of third string wide receivers and developmental quarterbacks.






Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC East

I love fantasy football. I really like winning (I have some sort of allergic reaction to losing). Here is my sleeper player for each NFL team. I'll be going division by division and giving my reasons for watching these players closely through training camp and the regular season. Not that my reasons will be any good, but since you're here......

Miami Dolphins - Davone Bess, WR - The acquisition of Brandon Marshall means one thing: the Dolphins are looking to throw the ball more. Bess is a great slot receiver and could be a monster in points per reception leagues. He will have a legitimate shot at 100 receptions and a chance to score more touchdowns than the 2 total he has scored in his two NFL seasons. If there is an injury in the Dolphins' receiving corps, his value will be much higher.  Bess is a safe pick and should be a great steal in the late rounds.

New York Jets - David Clowney, WR - The trades for Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards have bumped the pre-season star Clowney down the depth chart and out of fantasy owners' minds. While he does has an uphill fight, Clowney could be the one to capitalize on an injury or inconsistent play by the receivers ahead of him. Clowney has blazing speed but hasn't had the chance to show it in the regular season because of his own injury issues. Clowney is not draftable at this point but should be on fantasy owners' radars if the right situation arises.

New England Patriots - Brandon Tate, WR - Tate is not a polished route runner and has had knee problems that have prevented him from being an impact receiver at the college and NFL level. He has first round physical talent, and the Patriots are in bad need of an outside threat opposite Randy Moss. Tate is my favorite to win that job if he can stay healthy. He also is a huge threat in the return game and could add a touchdown or two in that department. You will need to pay close attention to the depth chart as the pre-season comes to a close, but if your draft is early in the preseason, take the risk on a guy like Tate with one of your last picks. He has big time potential in that offense.

Buffalo Bills - Shawn Nelson, TE - Nelson has the most potential out of this group of players to become a starter this season. The problem is Buffalo struggled mightly to move the ball last season and may do so again this season. Mike Mayock was big on Nelson's receiving capabilities coming into the League last season. Buffalo's other tight end options (Derek Schouman, Jonathan Stupar, and Joe Klopfenstein) are not threats in the passing game. C.J. Spiller may help to open up the passing game, and the Bills are in serious need of playmakers, so I expect Nelson to win the starting tight end job. Nelson should be a late round pick or priority bye week replacement in leagues that require a tight end.


We will be going over the AFC North tomorrow and trying to find the gems in a division shifting from run oriented offenses to a more wide open game. 






Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

Top 12 Fantasy Football Rookies

It's never too early for fantasy predictions. Here are EMQB's top 12 rookies based on my fantasy projections. I based them on opportunity and environment along with their draft position. This system hasn't failed me in the four years I've used it. It also helps if you have a poor disposition to losing.

1. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers - Mathews will get plenty of carries and plenty of chances to score touchdowns in the Chargers' high flying offense. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield and, therefore, doesn't need to be replaced on passing downs. If he can stay healthy the entire season, he could make letting Darren Sproles enter free agency a lot easier. Look to draft Mathews in the 3rd or 4th round of seasonal fantasy drafts.


2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions - C.J. Spiller was the back in this draft whose name was mentioned with the likes of the Titans' Chris Johnson, but I believe Best is a closer example because of his toughness between the tackles. If he can endure NFL hits and if the Lions can block (which is a huge amount of "if"s), Best could be the runaway (pun fully intended) Rookie of Year. Draft Best around the 4th or 5th round in seasonal drafts.


3. Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans - When Steve Slaton struggled last season, the Texans became a one dimensional passing team. Houston drafted Tate with the intention of resolving that problem. While he will split carries with Slaton, look for the Texans to use Tate as a goal line back and their main running option with a fourth quarter lead. Tate could be available from the 6th - 8th rounds of the seasonal draft and has sleeper pick written all over him.


4. Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland Browns - Despite incumbent starter Jerome Harrison's huge last three games of the 2009 season (including 282 yards rushing in a meaningless game against Kansas City Chiefs), the Browns traded up for Hardesty. He is a big back (6'0", 220 lbs) and could instantly become the Browns' short yardage and goal line runner.  He has the potential to be the full-time guy in Cleveland this season. He plays for an awful Browns' team and that will drop his draft stock to the later rounds of seasonal drafts, but he will get touches and should out-perform some rookies that were drafted higher.


5. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys - Bryant is the most talented rookie in this group and goes to a team where he is surrounded with talent. He will not be the focus of attention and could become a force because of single coverage. I rank him this low because wide receivers usually requires some time (a season or two) to adjust from the college game. I tend to think rookies are the rule and not the exception, but Bryant is worth drafting in the 5th - 7th rounds based on a potential Randy Moss-like rookie campaign.


6. C.J. Spiller, RB/RS, Buffalo Bills - Spiller is the next Reggie Bush - minus the great quarterback, excellent offensive line, and creative play calling. Spiller is dynamic and will create some big plays for this Bills' team. I have a hard time believing he will make a game in / game out contribution because of his tendency to bounce most of his runs to the outside and the lack of talent surrounding him. Many people, like my friend Jay "the Bills' homer", will disagree with my notion that Spiller is a real value around the 8th or 9th round. However, he could go as high as the 2nd or 3rd round in seasonal drafts. Just be thankful that someone else takes on the risk of picking Spiller that high. Go ahead, Jay, he's all yours.


7. Golden Tate, WR/KR, Seattle Seahawks - Tate gets ranked this high because he has a veteran quarterback and some decent talent surrounding him at the position. If your league gives extra points for return yards, his value is even higher. Tate is great after the catch, and I believe he has a legitimate chance to be the top rookie receiver in fantasy this season because of his experience in the pro style offense, route running ability, and toughness. He probably will go undrafted in seasonal leagues but could be worth a late round flier.

8. Dexter McCluster, WR/RB/RS, Kansas City Chiefs - McCluster has a lot of things going against him: lack of size, has to learn the receiver position at the pro level, and having big expectations based on his status as a high round draft pick. McCluster is an instinctive playmaker who will be given chances to make plays. Based on his potential to score 6-7 touchdowns and make big plays, McCluster is a high-priority free agent who should be monitored through out training camp and the pre-season.

9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos - Thomas has a long way to go in his route running capabilities but should be able to make an impact based on a lack of depth at the receiver postion and his raw physical talent. Thomas could be drafted late in seasonal drafts based on being a first round pick but expectations should be tempered as Thomas is a developmental prospect.

10. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals - If your league requires you to have a starting tight end like mine does, then Gresham should be on your radar as a potential bye week replacement. He has talent surrounding him on the Bengals' offense and should get some chances to catch goal line touchdowns and exploit matchups against slower linebackers. The Bengals will probably continue to be a run first team, so his targets in the passing game could be sporatic.


11. Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Somebody has to be the number one for the Bucs, and it very well could be Benn. A lock for the first round even before the start of his junior season in '09, Benn struggled with the poor quarterback play at Illinois. Tampa could be behind in a lot of games this season, and Benn could benefit from the increased passing. Not draftable at this point, he should be looked at as a priority free agent.


12. Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings - If Gerhart could fill the Chester Taylor role, he will make for a viable bye week replacement. Adrian Peterson could see more carries if Brett Farve retires, and more carries means a higher risk of injury. That would the point were Gerhart would have real fantasy value. Look for him to be a late round flier or a priority free agent.


Keep an eye on........


Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers


Joe McKnight, RB, New York Jets


Anthony Dixon, RB, San Francisco 49ers


Jordan Shipley, WR, Cincinnati Bengals


Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 


Armanti Edwards, WR, Carolina Panthers

 


Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

EMQB's "Feel Free to Mock" Draft

http://jasondavis22.files.wordpress.com/2009/12

Let me preface this mock draft by saying: I have never done a mock draft before.  If you disagree or feel there are omissions, please comment.  I would appreciate the feedback because then I would know you are actually reading this blog. "Then - here - we - go."

1.  St. Louis Rams- Sam Bradford, QB:  The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. The Rams don’t have a quality starting QB. Enough said.

2.  Detroit Lions – Ndamukong Suh, DT:  Don’t believe the hype about trading down or selecting an offensive lineman. Many feel Suh is the best player in the draft, and the Lions need a run stopping defensive tackle.

3.  Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Gerald McCoy, DT:  Many other evaluators believe that  McCoy is the best player in the draft. He fits Tampa’s defense perfectly and fills a desperate need.

4.  Washington Redskins – Russell Okung, OT: Washington has their quarterback. They need to keep him healthy. Okung is the best pass protector in this draft.

5.  Kansas City Chiefs – Bryan Bulaga, OT: Everyone has Eric Berry as the BPA. The Chiefs don’t believe in investing that much money in the offensive or defensive skill positions. They proved that by selecting Tyson Jackson in last year’s first round.

6.  Seattle Seahawks – Eric Berry, S: By selecting Berry, who many feel is the third best player in this draft behind the two defensive tackles, the Seahawks infuse their defensive backfield with a playmaker. They need to improve many positions, so I see them taking the best player available when they draft.

7.  Cleveland Browns – Trent Williams, OT:  I thought of putting C.J. Spiller in this slot, but a great right tackle to complement Joe Thomas wouldn’t hurt. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them trade out of this pick.

8.  Oakland Raiders – Sergio Kindle, OLB: A great athlete at a needed position. Sounds like a Raiders pick. No, I never considered Bruce Campbell.

9.  Buffalo Bills – Jimmy Clausen, QB: Clausen is a good value at this position. Trent Edwards has proven nothing, and the Bills fans need something to get excited about after last year’s debacle.

10.  Jacksonville Jaguars – Derrick Morgan, DE:  The team’s failure to draft an effective pass rusher has hurt them. They will try to get it right with this pick.

11.  Denver Broncos - Joe Haden, CB: Great value for Haden at this point. The Broncos just need to add talent to their roster.

12.  Miami Dolphins – Dez Bryant, WR: A big, strong, over the middle receiver who can catch the ball deep. Character concerns are over blown, and he would be a perfect addition to a young offense.

13.  San Francisco 49ers - Anthony Davis, OT: Don’t believe the negative press about this guy. It’s just teams below this pick hoping he falls.

14.  Seattle Seahawks – C.J. Spiller, RB: People are talking about him going much higher. It might happen. He is a running back, and they have a short shelf life. He is one of the special players in this draft, and Seattle would love to have him.

15.  New York Giants – Rolando McClain, MLB: The Giants need a man in the middle, and McClain is talented. Hopefully he could help the G-Men return to defensive respectability.

16.  Tennessee Titans - Jason Pierre-Paul, DE: Risky pick, but the Titans have talent, and he fits a big need. If he can supply any type of a pass rush, this would be a right place, right time situation.

17.  San Francisco 49ers – Kyle Wilson, CB: San Francisco needs a starting corner opposite Nate Clements.  They need a punt returner, too. Why not kill two birds with one stone?

18.  Pittsburgh Steelers – Mike Iupati, OG: A great player at a big need. Iupati could probably play LG, RG, or RT. This type of versatility makes him extremely valuable.

19.  Atlanta Falcons – Earl Thomas, CB/S: The Falcons need help in the secondary. Thomas is a great man-coverage defender. I would be surprised if he slipped this far, but he has in my draft.

20.  Houston Texans – Jared Odrick, DT: While Dan Williams is rated higher by many, Odrick is a three down defensive tackle. The Texans would love a starting caliber defensive tackle with this pick.

21.  Cincinnati Bengals – Jermaine Gresham, TE: A bunch of people have this in their mock draft already:  that’s because it actually makes sense. The Bengals need a quality tight end and a receiving threat. Gresham could fill both.

22.  New England Patriots – Brandon Graham, OLB: At this point, I’m just picking guys I like. Brandon Graham won’t impress you in gym shorts. He’s a football player. The Patriots like football players.

23.  Green Bay Packers – Jerry Hughes, OLB: With a run on offensive lineman, the Packers could scoop a pass rushing linebacker to add to their 3-4 defense.

24.  Philadelphia Eagles - Devin McCourty, CB: The Eagles love drafting lineman early, but McCourty could be to tough to pass on.

25.  Baltimore Ravens – Demaryius Thomas, WR: Even with the acquisition of Anquan Boldin, this wide receiver corps could use a boost. Ravens would not be afraid to go best player available this far down in the first round.

26.  Arizona Cardinals - Sean Witherspoon, LB: A possible replacement for Karlos Dansby, Witherspoon is an excellent pick at this point in the draft.

27.  Dallas Cowboys – Maurkice Pouncey, C/OG:  The Cowboys have recently cut Flozell Adams. Pouncey could add depth and even possibly take a starting job on the Cowboys interior offensive line.

28.  San Diego Chargers – Ryan Mathews, RB: It’s pretty simple. The Chargers need a running back, and Mathews is the best one left in this draft.

29.  New York Jets – Dan Williams, NT: With an injury prone Kris Jenkins at nose tackle, Williams could rotate with Jenkins until Williams is ready to become a full time starter.

30.  Minnesota Vikings – Nate Allen, S: With safety being a liability, Allen has the talent to start immediately. Hopefully his “character issues” are more Randy Moss than Demetrius Underwood.

31.  Indianapolis Colts – Charles Brown, OT: One of the most athletic left tackles in the draft. The Colts love to keep Peyton Manning’s jersey clean so a move like this wouldn’t shock me.

32.  New Orleans Saints – Daryl Washington, LB:  The loss of Scott Fujita has made a replacement necessary.  Washington is an excellent pass defender from the linebacker position, an attribute required in Greg Williams’ defense.



Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.