The Every Morning Quarterback

Thursday, February 17, 2011

American football field. image by Sandra Henderson from Fotolia.com

Read more: How to Use Statistical Analysis in Fantasy Football | eHow.com http://www.ehow.com/how_7948278_use-statistical-analysis-fantasy-football.html#ixzz1EFGYaS00

One of our staff writers has a new article up on eHow.com. Check out advice on how to use statistical analysis for managing your fantasy football.

Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.

Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Fantastic Voyage: EMQB's Fantasy Draft Rules for 2010

Jump at the chance to draft Jermichael Finley

As sure as Brett Favre's annual comeback, the fantasy football draft season is in full swing. Drafting your fantasy team online should be a crime (considering that eating high calorie junk food while drafting among rivals is a part of the unwritten code of fantasy geeks), and the team who selects Sidney Rice with their second round pick should provide plenty of laughs.

I have just finished two championship quality drafts (of course) and would like to break down the EMQB's rules to fantasy football drafting in 2010:

1. If you have a chance to draft Chris Johnson, Adrian Peterson, or Maurice Jones-Drew, please do: This would seem like a no brainer. In fact, my son, in his very first fantasy football draft, went against my advice and drafted Andre Johnson with Peterson and MJD still left on the board. So much for the future of our country.

2. Draft Calvin Johnson because he will have a career year: I could give you a bunch of excuses on why he didn't have a great season in 2009. I will tell you this, Megatron will have a better statistical year than every receiver except the previously mentioned Andre Johnson. He is a bona fide freak of nature, and with the Lions new weapons in the passing game, he can't be stopped. I have selected him in both of my fantasy drafts so far and don't have an ounce of buyer's remorse. Feel free to select Calvin in the second round and add a championship trophy to your mantle.

3. Jermichael Finley is as good if not better as Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark: If you take Finley's averages over the last 7 games of the 2009 season, he would have had 950 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns. That is not including his two monster games, one for 128 receiving yards and a touchdown in week 4 against the Vikings and the other for 159 yards against the Cards in the playoffs. He could easily surpass 1,100 receiving yards and have 10-12 touchdowns in 2010. Gates has had his share of injury issues, and Clark has never been the main focus of the Colts offense. Finley is only 23 years old and hasn't had his best season yet. Gates and Clark probably have.

4. Nab Shonn Greene or Jamaal Charles if you can get one of the big three: If you can't achieve rule number one, than choose either Shonn Greene or Jamaal Charles in the second or third round. Charles is a former track star who could be the next CJ2K, and Greene is the beneficiary of the carries left over by the departure of Thomas Jones. Anybody who plays fantasy knows carries are money. Don't let the your opponents draft these guys and leave you crying alone in the dark later.

5. Plenty O' Quaterbacks: Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, and Aaron Rodgers are all elite fantasy quarterbacks. The fact is the difference between Eli Manning and Peyton Manning was about 3.25 points per game in 2009. Matt Shaub, Jay Cutler, Kevin Kolb, and Matt Ryan are all great starting options and will come much cheaper than the "elite" quaterbacks. Shop at the dollar store and not at Neiman Marcus.

6. Better late than never: There are so many receivers and runners with huge roles on their team still available late in the draft. Here's the current fliers on my menu:

Arian Foster, Ahmad Bradshaw, and Michael Bush at running back

Jacoby Jones, Malcolm Floyd, the Bucs' Mike Williams, Laurent Robinson, Nate Burleson, Anthony Gonzalez, and Jabar Gaffney at wide receiver

Zach Miller, Chris Cooley, John Carlson, Dustin Keller, Ben Watson, and Tony Scheffler at the tight end position

These guys all have the benefit of personnel, coaching, or team changes that give them a huge role with their team. Many players with bigger injury risks and lesser roles will be selected before these guys, but trust me these guys have much bigger upside, and you can thank me later for telling you about them (just like my friend just did for telling him to pick up Chris Johnson in our keeper league - two years ago).

7. Don't freak on the streak: Every draft has a streak. Players from the same position come flying off the board, and you're left with Derrick Ward as your second running back. Stay calm. Find value at another position. This year's crop of players is deep, and if you don't so flustered by a streak that you need medication, you'll be able to draft for value through most of the draft and not have to draft for need until the very end.

8. Survival of the fittest: Football often plays out like watching Animal Planet. The old and tired are devoured by the young and strong. With age and wear comes increased risk for injury for players. Players like Matt Hasselbeck and Donovan McNabb must be backed up with reliable fantasy options if you draft them as your starting quarterbacks. This forces you to spend a higher pick on a backup at a certain position, rather than drafting the best player available.

Other age and injury risks: Steven Jackson, Brandon Jacobs, Ronnie Brown, Clinton Portis, LaDanian Tomlinson, Brian Westbrook, Wes Welker, Chad Ochocinco, Hines Ward, Terrell Owens, Deion Branch, Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, and Todd Heap.

So there you have it. If you want to taste the playoffs like I have in each of the last four fantasy seasons, you will heed my advice. If you think I'm a blabbering idiot, you won't. Either way, I hope you learned something. Good luck in the realm of fantasy.

Every Morning Quarterback by Aharon Williams is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-No Derivative Works 3.0 United States License.
Based on a work at www.everymorningqb.com.
Permissions beyond the scope of this license may be available at www.everymorningqb.com.

Saturday, July 3, 2010

Remember the Titans?

As I have taken off the last month, the NFL and the 24 hour news cycle has not. It has, however, given me time to reflect on some of the more interesting aspects of the recent NFL news and, of course, helped me to completely avoid the boring ones.

Remember the 2008 Tennessee Titans? They were the last undefeated team that season and "stomped out" the eventual Super Bowl champion Steelers to secure home field advantage through out the play offs. Then they ran into the Ravens during the divisional round of the playoffs. The future still looked bright, and it looked as if the 2009 Titans could be even more talented than the 1999 Titans that made it all the way to the big game.

The saying is the NFL stands for "Not For Long" and that would be the absolute truth for the Titans. Within the last month, the Seahawks cut Lendale White; the ongoing Albert Haynesworth saga has fallen out of the ugly tree; and Vince Young has made his strip club brawl another reason to question his maturity. What do they all have in common? You guessed it. They are all members of the 2008 Titans. Those are just the veterans. Add Derrick Morgan's arrest for speeding before he has even signed his first contract to the headache. The losses or demotions of leaders like defensive end Kyle Van den Bosch, center Kevin Mawae, and linebacker Keith Bullock are possible signs to a locker room lacking a true identity.

I respect Jeff Fisher and the job he has done adapting to constantly changing personnel and talent. With all of the recent problems, including the possible Chris Johnson hold out and starting linebacker Gerald McRath's steroid suspension, Fisher might have bigger problems than just turnover. This team needs some of its young talented players to develop into leaders. The NFL isn't the place for rah-rah motivators and coaches. It's a business. The players take care of motivating themselves, and there are certain players that both the players and coaches look to for emotional direction.

The Titans are a great enigma going into next season, and I, unfortunately, believe that these seemingly unrelated stories speak volumes about the state of the Tennessee locker room.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC West

It's now on to the AFC West and their fantasy sleepers. Most of the names here are familiar and could harvest big dividends for the fantasy owner willing to take a risk on them. Eddie Royal is looking to return to fantasy stardom. Malcolm Floyd and Michael Bush are looking to finally have their breakout seasons. Tony Moeki is a rookie tight end on a Chiefs' team starved for talent at the position. Fortunately if these guys don't come through, you can cut them and get somebody who can play. EMQB is always putting the "ex" in expert.

Denver Broncos - Eddie Royal, WR: With Brandon Marshall traded to Miami, Royal seems too obvious to be a sleeper. The selection of Demaryius Thomas in the first round and Royal's disappointing 2009 season (37 receptions, 345 yards, no touchdowns) doesn't guarantee that Royal will be the number one receiver in Denver. If Royal is put in the slot with Thomas and Jabar Gaffney playing the outside receiver positions, Royal could post numbers much closer to his 2008 season (91 catches, 980 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns). He also has great ability as a kick returner. Look for Royal to possibly bounce back big. He will be available somewhere around the 9th round or possibly later, but his upside at WR3 is worth the risk.

San Diego Chargers - Malcolm Floyd, WR: Floyd's number of receptions rose from 27 in '08 to 36 in '09. That doesn't seem like a lot, but in the Chargers' down field passing game, Floyd could develop into a scoring threat. As the pass attempts rise for the Chargers, the number of targets for Floyd will rise with them. Floyd is a late round pick at best and would probably be available as a priority free agent.

Kansas City Chiefs - Tony Moeki, TE: Rookies can be the best sleepers, and Moeki is a true sleeper. He has impressed in mini camps (in his shorts and t-shirts) and should add a threat in the middle of the field that the Chiefs have been lacking since the Tony Gonzalez trade. Todd Haley doesn't call the tight end's number often (Sean Ryan lead the Chiefs in tight end receptions with 14 last season), and Moeki may be the fifth best receiving option on the team. None the less, Moeki could surprise. Though he is not worth a draft pick at this point, he is definitely worth a look in dynasty leagues and as player to keep tabs on for bye week replacements.

Oakland Raiders - Michael Bush, RB: Bush isn't a huge sleeper, but when you consider that Darren McFadden was a high draft pick and still has great expectations attached to his immense physical talent, Bush maybe available after McFadden. With the distinct possibility of McFadden getting injured, Bush seems like a great option in the Raiders' run first offense. Reports are he is already running with the first team offense in mini camp and that bodes well for a possible 1,000 yard rushing season. View Bush as a RB3 with huge upside and look to select him around the fifth round.

Monday, May 17, 2010

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC South

The Colts, Jags, Texans, and Titans are all deep offensive teams with defined roles. Finding sleepers will be no easy chore. But talent is always buried on even the most talented rosters, and all these players need is opportunity.

Indianapolis Colts - Anthony Gonzales, WR: Nothing will get you forgotten as quickly as being injured. Gonzales was injured in week 1 of last season and never returned to the field during the Colts' Super Bowl run. Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie emerged, and fantasy owners will probably have Gonzales fighting for the 3rd wide receiver. However, if he can fully recover, he could reclaim that second receiver spot. The training camp battle should be watched closely as the second receiver spot on the Colts can be easily worth around 1,000 yards and 6-8 touchdowns. If Gonzales wins this spot, he could be had for a mid round pick.

Jacksonville Jaguars - Jarrett Dillard, WR: The 5'10", 187 pound Dillard was a star at Rice and can win a wide open competition for the Jags' second receiver spot. The Jags love to run the football, so the expectations of the player who wins that spot should be tempered. Dillard's competition (Troy Williamson and Mike Thomas) have their limitations, and Dillard is ultra-competitive, tough, and catches the football in traffic. I like him to win this job, and if he does, because of the run oriented offense he is in, he could be available in the late rounds or as a high priority free agent.

Houston Texans - Jacoby Jones, WR: Jones is an explosive return man and has shown the same potential as a receiver. He had 5 touchdown receptions in his 22 catches last season. Jones has the speed and ability to get behind NFL defenses. The resigning of Kevin Walters will bring down Jones value, but Walters could be moved to the slot, and Jones to the outside position opposite Andre Johnson. If this is the case, Jones would be an excellent late round value because of the Texans downfield passing offense.

Tennessee Titans - Jared Cook, TE: Cook is an athletic tight end (like Jermichael Finley), and the Titans would love to feature him much more in their offense this season. Bo Scaife is ahead of him on the depth chart but isn't much better of a blocker, and he definitely does not have the playmaking ability that Cook does. Though Scaife might start out the season getting more snaps, there is a strong chance that Cook could work his way up to a starter and a major red zone threat. Cook is not worth a draft pick at this point, but should be one of the first tight ends consider as an injury or fantasy bust replacement.

EMQB will next look at the wild AFC West and see what Oakland, Kansas City, Denver, and San Diego have hidden in the cupboard.

Thursday, May 13, 2010

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC North

Today's fantasy sleepers come to us via the AFC North, which was known for its hard-nosed, run- first mentality, but is slowly evolving into a more passer friendly group. With the great defenses in the division, these sleepers better keep their eyes open and their head on a swivel.

Pittsburgh Steelers - Mike Wallace, WR: Considering the trade of Santonio Holmes, Wallace might not be a guy many owners are sleeping on. With bigger "name" wide receivers on the roster, like Hines Ward and Antwaan Randle-El, Wallace could be overlooked and be an awesome value pick. Wallace is a speedster who is adept at making plays down the field. He averaged 75 receiving yards a game the last three games of last season and added 3 touchdowns in those contests. If he could keep that up over a full season, that would be more than 1200 receiving yards. He could be available for sixth or seventh round draft pick and could far out produce guys drafted ahead of him.

Cleveland Browns - James Davis, RB: A rookie who had an awesome pre-season last year but was sidelined after week three for the entire remainder of the 2009 season. With the drafting of Montario Hardesty and the strong finish of Jerome Harrison last season, Davis will be an afterthought in many draft magazines and websites. He fought off C.J. Spiller for a starting job for three years and has as much physical talent as Hardesty or Harrison. Don't sleep on this guy. If he wins the starting job in Cleveland, he is a solid no. 3 running back, and if he doesn't, he will be a top name to watch in case of injury.

Baltimore Ravens - Donte' Stallworth, WR: After being suspended for the entire 2009, Stallworth gets a new opportunity with the Ravens. Existing starters Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton are still on the roster, and Baltimore made a big trade for Anquan Boldin, so Stallworth is facing a tough battle to get reps. He could surpass Clayton, who has been a disappointment and is coming off a knee injury. He will never be a number one but has nice run after the catch ability, and this Ravens wide receiver corps is lacking blazing speed. Stallworth is not drafting at this point, but if he moves up the depth chart in the pre-season, he could fill in nicely as a bye week replacement.

Cincinnati Bengals - Matt Jones, WR: Another player looking to revive his career, Jones has elite physical talent. He is on a team that is filled with wide receivers (Chad Ochocinco, Antonio Bryant, Andre Caldwell, Jerome Simpson, and Jordan Shipley) so he could have trouble making the roster. Jones has never had a huge season (65 catches, 761 yards and 5 receiving touchdowns are his career highs) so my optimism is guarded. But if he wins the fourth receiver job and an injury occurs, Jones suddenly becomes a nice player to stash on your roster. Jones is the biggest long shot I have profiled so far, but a player with his ability should always be on your radar.

Tomorrow we will explore the hidden gems on the Texans, Colts, Jags, and Titans. With all the offensive firepower, it's going to be hard to find guys who aren't high on everybody's cheat sheet. The Every Morning Quarterback is up to the challenge. Prepare to dominate your league in your knowledge of third string wide receivers and developmental quarterbacks.

Cushing's Bad Joke

Eddie Murphy once made a joke, in the movie "Raw", about a man who was caught red handed coming out of another women's house. The punchline of the joke is the confrontation of the man by his wife and his response of, "It wasn't me". Laughter insued.

Two - time NFL Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing held a press conference in Houston today. He stated that he never ingested the drug HCG - which is a female fertility drug that masks hormone levels after taking steroids.

According to NFL.com, he made the statement, “It’s something I’m very concerned about. The fact that how it’s there, and what’s going to determine it from happening again. That’s going to be something that we’re going to medically investigate.”

The song and dance sounds a lot much like the argument that many baseball players used in their sport's steroid scandal. However, the more information that came out, the less probable it was they were telling the truth. At least, Cushing didn't try the "I'm not here to talk about the past" defense.

If Cushing thinks that this press conference improved his image or answered any questions - he is sadly mistaken. His reputation is damaged beyond repair. If he is dominant, then it is because of PEDs. If he is no longer dominant, it is because of the lack of performance enhancers. Trust is something that is earned, and Cushing has made his athletic ability questionable forever.

If there is a positive from this situation, it is that the NFL has egg on its face. The AP re-voting, and Cushing's less than stellar reasons for having a fertility drug in his system have shined a light on the NFL Steroid Policy. The lack of consequences for players that cheat their way to fortune and fame has been overlooked and excepted for far too long. Perhaps this will inspire some real change.

Cushing can look us all in the face and say, "It wasn't me". That doesn't mean we have to laugh at his bad joke.

Wednesday, May 12, 2010

EMQB's Fantasy Sleepers - AFC East

I love fantasy football. I really like winning (I have some sort of allergic reaction to losing). Here is my sleeper player for each NFL team. I'll be going division by division and giving my reasons for watching these players closely through training camp and the regular season. Not that my reasons will be any good, but since you're here......

Miami Dolphins - Davone Bess, WR - The acquisition of Brandon Marshall means one thing: the Dolphins are looking to throw the ball more. Bess is a great slot receiver and could be a monster in points per reception leagues. He will have a legitimate shot at 100 receptions and a chance to score more touchdowns than the 2 total he has scored in his two NFL seasons. If there is an injury in the Dolphins' receiving corps, his value will be much higher. Bess is a safe pick and should be a great steal in the late rounds.

New York Jets - David Clowney, WR - The trades for Santonio Holmes and Braylon Edwards have bumped the pre-season star Clowney down the depth chart and out of fantasy owners' minds. While he does has an uphill fight, Clowney could be the one to capitalize on an injury or inconsistent play by the receivers ahead of him. Clowney has blazing speed but hasn't had the chance to show it in the regular season because of his own injury issues. Clowney is not draftable at this point but should be on fantasy owners' radars if the right situation arises.

New England Patriots - Brandon Tate, WR - Tate is not a polished route runner and has had knee problems that have prevented him from being an impact receiver at the college and NFL level. He has first round physical talent, and the Patriots are in bad need of an outside threat opposite Randy Moss. Tate is my favorite to win that job if he can stay healthy. He also is a huge threat in the return game and could add a touchdown or two in that department. You will need to pay close attention to the depth chart as the pre-season comes to a close, but if your draft is early in the preseason, take the risk on a guy like Tate with one of your last picks. He has big time potential in that offense.

Buffalo Bills - Shawn Nelson, TE - Nelson has the most potential out of this group of players to become a starter this season. The problem is Buffalo struggled mightly to move the ball last season and may do so again this season. Mike Mayock was big on Nelson's receiving capabilities coming into the League last season. Buffalo's other tight end options (Derek Schouman, Jonathan Stupar, and Joe Klopfenstein) are not threats in the passing game. C.J. Spiller may help to open up the passing game, and the Bills are in serious need of playmakers, so I expect Nelson to win the starting tight end job. Nelson should be a late round pick or priority bye week replacement in leagues that require a tight end.

We will be going over the AFC North tomorrow and trying to find the gems in a division shifting from run oriented offenses to a more wide open game.

Tainted Love - Cushing Wins ROY Again

Texans' linebacker Brian Cushing has done what no other player has done before. He has been recognized as the NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year twice by the Associated Press. After Cushing failed a test for steroids last September and was suspended by the NFL on Monday, the AP ordered a re-vote for the 2009 award that Cushing had won.

The giving of an already tainted award to another player would have done nothing to solve the real issue. The voters understood that stripping Cushing of the award wouldn't actually have made the new recipient the winner, it would have made him "the guy who got the award because Cushing cheated." There was no satisfactory outcome to the issue. The award will stay Cushing's and so will the controversy surrounding it.

The use of anabolic steroids, HGH, and masking agents is happening in the NFL more than we care to know. Is it fair to strip a guy who got caught using and possibly give it to player who used and didn't get caught? The AP voters are simply sending us a message - Brian Cushing is not the only person in the NFL using these substances. The limitless contradictions are a can of worms best left unopened. Performance enhancing drugs have robbed fans of enough faith.

Tuesday, May 11, 2010

Don't Ever Sleep On the Bengals

Is former Raiders' quarterback Jamarcus Russell going to be a Cincinnati Bengal? Chad Ocho Cinco has proclaimed that he "would see Jamarcus Russell in mini camp" via Twitter. Take it with a grain of salt but OCNN broke the signing of Adam Jones and the visit of Terrell Owens. This has the Twitter world all a flutter.

Even though I pretty much guaranteed that Russell would never play in the NFL again, I obviously forgot that the Cincinnati Bengals are still an NFL franchise. They are always looking to snatch up physically talented players at dollar store prices, and Russell fits that description. He also fits a need as the Bengals need a solid backup.

The question is: can Russell develop into a dependable back up? How will he fit into a locker room that already has guys who have made questionable decisions in the past? For the money he'll get, getting a look at Jamarcus will be cost effective. Fortunately for Russell, Cincy is a long ways away from Vegas.