1. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers - Mathews will get plenty of carries and plenty of chances to score touchdowns in the Chargers' high flying offense. He can also catch the ball out of the backfield and, therefore, doesn't need to be replaced on passing downs. If he can stay healthy the entire season, he could make letting Darren Sproles enter free agency a lot easier. Look to draft Mathews in the 3rd or 4th round of seasonal fantasy drafts.
2. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit Lions - C.J. Spiller was the back in this draft whose name was mentioned with the likes of the Titans' Chris Johnson, but I believe Best is a closer example because of his toughness between the tackles. If he can endure NFL hits and if the Lions can block (which is a huge amount of "if"s), Best could be the runaway (pun fully intended) Rookie of Year. Draft Best around the 4th or 5th round in seasonal drafts.
3. Ben Tate, RB, Houston Texans - When Steve Slaton struggled last season, the Texans became a one dimensional passing team. Houston drafted Tate with the intention of resolving that problem. While he will split carries with Slaton, look for the Texans to use Tate as a goal line back and their main running option with a fourth quarter lead. Tate could be available from the 6th - 8th rounds of the seasonal draft and has sleeper pick written all over him.
4. Montario Hardesty, RB, Cleveland Browns - Despite incumbent starter Jerome Harrison's huge last three games of the 2009 season (including 282 yards rushing in a meaningless game against Kansas City Chiefs), the Browns traded up for Hardesty. He is a big back (6'0", 220 lbs) and could instantly become the Browns' short yardage and goal line runner. He has the potential to be the full-time guy in Cleveland this season. He plays for an awful Browns' team and that will drop his draft stock to the later rounds of seasonal drafts, but he will get touches and should out-perform some rookies that were drafted higher.
5. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas Cowboys - Bryant is the most talented rookie in this group and goes to a team where he is surrounded with talent. He will not be the focus of attention and could become a force because of single coverage. I rank him this low because wide receivers usually requires some time (a season or two) to adjust from the college game. I tend to think rookies are the rule and not the exception, but Bryant is worth drafting in the 5th - 7th rounds based on a potential Randy Moss-like rookie campaign.
6. C.J. Spiller, RB/RS, Buffalo Bills - Spiller is the next Reggie Bush - minus the great quarterback, excellent offensive line, and creative play calling. Spiller is dynamic and will create some big plays for this Bills' team. I have a hard time believing he will make a game in / game out contribution because of his tendency to bounce most of his runs to the outside and the lack of talent surrounding him. Many people, like my friend Jay "the Bills' homer", will disagree with my notion that Spiller is a real value around the 8th or 9th round. However, he could go as high as the 2nd or 3rd round in seasonal drafts. Just be thankful that someone else takes on the risk of picking Spiller that high. Go ahead, Jay, he's all yours.
7. Golden Tate, WR/KR, Seattle Seahawks - Tate gets ranked this high because he has a veteran quarterback and some decent talent surrounding him at the position. If your league gives extra points for return yards, his value is even higher. Tate is great after the catch, and I believe he has a legitimate chance to be the top rookie receiver in fantasy this season because of his experience in the pro style offense, route running ability, and toughness. He probably will go undrafted in seasonal leagues but could be worth a late round flier.
8. Dexter McCluster, WR/RB/RS, Kansas City Chiefs - McCluster has a lot of things going against him: lack of size, has to learn the receiver position at the pro level, and having big expectations based on his status as a high round draft pick. McCluster is an instinctive playmaker who will be given chances to make plays. Based on his potential to score 6-7 touchdowns and make big plays, McCluster is a high-priority free agent who should be monitored through out training camp and the pre-season.
9. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos - Thomas has a long way to go in his route running capabilities but should be able to make an impact based on a lack of depth at the receiver postion and his raw physical talent. Thomas could be drafted late in seasonal drafts based on being a first round pick but expectations should be tempered as Thomas is a developmental prospect.
10. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati Bengals - If your league requires you to have a starting tight end like mine does, then Gresham should be on your radar as a potential bye week replacement. He has talent surrounding him on the Bengals' offense and should get some chances to catch goal line touchdowns and exploit matchups against slower linebackers. The Bengals will probably continue to be a run first team, so his targets in the passing game could be sporatic.
11. Arrelious Benn, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Somebody has to be the number one for the Bucs, and it very well could be Benn. A lock for the first round even before the start of his junior season in '09, Benn struggled with the poor quarterback play at Illinois. Tampa could be behind in a lot of games this season, and Benn could benefit from the increased passing. Not draftable at this point, he should be looked at as a priority free agent.
12. Toby Gerhart, RB, Minnesota Vikings - If Gerhart could fill the Chester Taylor role, he will make for a viable bye week replacement. Adrian Peterson could see more carries if Brett Farve retires, and more carries means a higher risk of injury. That would the point were Gerhart would have real fantasy value. Look for him to be a late round flier or a priority free agent.
Keep an eye on........
Jonathan Dwyer, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Joe McKnight, RB, New York Jets
Anthony Dixon, RB, San Francisco 49ers
Jordan Shipley, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Mike Williams, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Armanti Edwards, WR, Carolina Panthers
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